Updated: 3 February 2024
Toru Nakagawa (OGU, WTSP Project Leader) "TRIZ Home Page in Japan":
http://www.osaka-gu.ac.jp/php/nakagawa/TRIZ/eTRIZ/
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Dear TRIZ Colleagues and WTSP Members
Hello, How are you, your family, and the people in your country?
I wrote in my last Update Announcement (Feb. 4) as:
Last December and January, I was working mostly on theI have made a new folder 'eEQP' directly under the 'eTRIZ' root
issue of "Short-Term Prediction of Earthquakes, Research
and Application".
This is a crucial issue in Japan, because we experienced
the Hanshin-Awaji EQ Disaster (1995) and
the East-Japan EQ Disaster (2011)
and now an even larger EQ (Nankai EQ) is foreseen
in the central and west regions in Japan
with the probability of 70-80% in 30 years.
Seismic Society of Japan (SSJ) and the Government regard
the short-term prediction of earthquakes
is currently impossible and
decline to make efforts for such a research.
I joined Earthquake Prediction Society of Japan (EPSJ) in 2015
and am now trying to promote a research project in EPSJ
(a small academic society with only about 100 members).
You may see my several articles in Japanese in my website.
Please give me a few more weeks to introduce them in English,
folder, to show short introductions in English to all my
Japanese articles on EQP. Such articles are:
[1] eEQP Index Page (for the 3rd time) (Toru Nakagawa)
[2] Links to EPSJ (Earthquake Prediction Society of Japan) website.
[3] Book Reviews written by Nakagawa and posted in the Amazon site:
(a) T. Rikitake: "Earthquake Prediction: Development and Prospects"
(2001), review by TN (Apr. 2015)
(b) J. Tomari: "130 Years of Earthquake Prediction Research in Japan:
From the Meiji Era to the Great East Japan Earthquake" (2015),
review by TN (Jun. 2023)
(c) T. Yoshida: "Can We Find Earthquake Precursors? - Multiple
Perspective Observation with Radio Waves" (2016),
review by TN (Jan. 2024)
[4] Presentation by Toru Nakagawa, EPSJ Annual Conf., Dec. 22, 2023
"On the Direction of Development of Earthquake Prediction Research"
Paper in proceedings, Presentations slides, and Presentation
video are posted in Japanese in "TRIZ Home Page in Japan". (Dec. 25, 2023)
Abstract:
Based on the theory of plate tectonics, recent seismology
has enabled long-/medium-term probabilistic forecasting of
earthquakes (EQs), using the analysis of seismic motion with
networks of seismographs and the analysis of crustal motion
measured by geodetic satellites.
But it avoids the research of short-term/imminent prediction
of EQs, assuming that such prediction is currently impossible.
However, most of the public wants to make the short-term/
imminent EQ prediction possible to reduce the EQ disaster;
and this desire is exactly the goal of the Earthquake
Prediction Society of Japan (EPSJ).
The present paper discusses the methodology for realizing
the goal. Our basic strategy is to capture the precursor
phenomena. We take the approach of experimental science,
relying on observations and experiments rather than theories,
and we also focus on electromagnetic phenomena rather than
mechanical phenomena.
In particular, the present paper notes the observation of
signals in the underground electric field by Minoru Tsutsui
(2022) and therefore proposes to start a research project
to verify the signals as EQ precursors by simultaneous
observation at multiple sites and to establish a method for
short-term/imminent prediction of EQs.
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Since the end of 2022, I have been calling in EPSJ for
'a cooperative research project by several research groups to
establish a reliable EQ prediction method'.
EPSJ is a small society of about 100 members and has a difficulty
in obtaining research funding.
I have decided to make every effort to make it a success,
in order to "Save Japan by Reducing Disaster due to Great EQ(s)
foreseen in the near future".
**********
This means that I will not have so much time to work for the
WTSP project as before. This is indeed a pity for me and for the WTSP project.
I sincerely wish TRIZ Leaders in the world, especially in the
countries active in TRIZ and yet incomplete of Country Parts
of World WTSP Catalogs, to contribute your manuscripts to
the World WTSP Catalogs.
I promise to edit such manuscripts and to complete the World
WTSP Catalogs in the Gamma Edition.
**********
All the details of these articles are posted on my website
"TRIZ Home Page in Japan" in Japanese and (briefly) in English.
I will write (in the next [WTSP] Letter) what we, together
you must complete the Gamma Edition of the World WTSP Catalogs of TRIZ Sites with you all.
Let's work Together! Connected !!
Best wishes,
Toru
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Toru Nakagawa, Dr., Professor Emeritus, Osaka Gakuin University
E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. [Main email address. For receiving.]
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This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. [For sending Update Announcements] Editor of the "TRIZ Home Page in Japan":
https://www.osaka-gu.ac.jp/php/nakagawa/TRIZ/eTRIZ/">URL:https://www.osaka-gu.ac.jp/php/nakagawa/TRIZ/eTRIZ/
Project Leader of World TRIZ-related Sites Project (WTSP) Director of CrePS Institute:
Publication of "TRIZ Practices and Benefits" book series (in Japanese)
3-1-13 Eirakudai, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-0086, Japan.
Phone & FAX: +81-4-7167-7403
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